Why IMD is Warning About Drought in 2026: Scientific Reasons

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recently released its first-stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the 2026 southwest monsoon, and the results have sent ripples through the agricultural and economic sectors. For the first time in several years, the official forecast indicates that rainfall is likely to be below normal, settled at approximately 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

With a 30% probability of drought-like conditions and a 40% chance of below-normal rains, the scientific community is keeping a close eye on the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The primary driver behind this shift is a complex interplay of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that dictate the rhythm of the Indian climate.

The El Niño Factor: The Silent Monsoon Killer

The most significant scientific reason for the IMD drought warning in 2026 is the emergence of El Niño. Currently, the Pacific Ocean is transitioning from a "neutral" state toward a warm phase.

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average. This warming disrupts the Walker Circulation, a massive atmospheric loop that usually pushes moist air toward the Indian subcontinent. When El Niño takes hold, this loop weakens or reverses, causing the moisture to stay over the Pacific and leaving India with suppressed rainfall.

The 2026 forecast suggests that while June may start with normal rainfall, the El Niño effect will likely intensify during the crucial months of July and August. This is particularly dangerous as these months are the backbone of the Kharif sowing season.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Eurasian Snow Cover

While El Niño is the "villain" in this scenario, the IMD is also monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A "Positive IOD"—often called the Indian Niño—can sometimes counteract the negative effects of El Niño by bringing more moisture to the Arabian Sea. However, current models for 2026 suggest a Neutral IOD for the first half of the season, meaning there is no immediate "safety net" to boost rainfall.

Furthermore, scientists analyze the Eurasian Snow Cover. Lower-than-average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere during winter and spring typically correlates with a stronger monsoon. For 2026, the snow cover has been slightly below normal, which would usually be a good sign, but the overwhelming strength of the El Niño transition is expected to override this minor positive factor.

Regional Impact: Who Is Most at Risk?

The IMD warning is not uniform across the country. The scientific data points toward a clear geographic divide:

Central and Western India: States like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat are at the highest risk of significant rainfall deficits.
Northwest India: Likely to see uneven distribution, leading to localized water stress.
South Peninsula and Northeast: These regions may receive normal to slightly above-normal rains, but not enough to offset the national average shortfall.

Agriculture and the "Water Bankruptcy" Threat

The scientific breakdown of the 2026 drought warning extends to groundwater levels. After years of erratic rainfall and high extraction, many parts of India are approaching what experts call "Global Water Bankruptcy." With the monsoon supplying 75% of India’s annual precipitation, a 92% LPA forecast means reservoirs may not reach their required capacity, leading to a severe drinking water and irrigation crisis in the pre-rabi season of late 2026.